Current Case

Judgment in the present

Make a first call on a sourced international-affairs case. Then test the call against competing readings and one changed assumption.

Responses and in-progress drafts stay in this browser. Each record shows its evidence window, sources, and correction status.

  1. Security
    Evidence through July 17, 2026

    Europe’s integrated anti-ballistic-missile coalition for Ukraine

    Ten European states and Ukraine are testing whether urgent wartime demand can become a credible European missile-defence architecture.

    Current case
    Open case

  2. Economic statecraft
    Evidence through July 17, 2026

    U.S. Section 301 tariffs on Brazil and Brazil’s calibrated retaliation debate

    A selective U.S. tariff package forces Brazil to choose between retaliation, domestic cushioning, negotiation, and a wider rules-based response.

    Archive case
    Open case

  3. Institutions and governance
    Evidence through July 17, 2026

    The South China Sea arbitral award at ten: legal reaffirmation versus Chinese rejection

    Ten years after the award, states must judge whether legal reaffirmation still shapes order when enforcement is indirect and China rejects the ruling.

    Archive case
    Open case